NEWYEAR - I have no doubt that Rajoy will try to increase taxes on companies - an example being the rise in VAT / sales tax this week. There are likely to be further measures - e.g. an increase in social taxes paid by a company on behalf of employees, such as health insurance. If companies are told they have to pay a one-off tax, or the increase in tax is modest, they may make a noisy protest, but usually will just end up paying.
However, if corporate taxes become *too* high (e.g. companies pay tax of 60% on their profits), then IAG is likely to reconsider where it is registered, and possibly move its base to somewhere other than Spain. This principle applies not only to IAG in Spain but all multinational companies throughout the world. The Spanish Govt knows this, and will be reluctant to scare off too many large companies too fast.
It is likely as well, that Bankia will be told to sell most, if not all, of its stake in IAG on the basis that if it needs taxpayer money to save it from bankruptcy, then it has no business investing spare cash elsewhere. The Spanish Govt needs the money and cannot afford to play equity investor right now. A far bigger concern should be who will likely buy a 12% equity stake in IAG, and how much they will try to interfere with what IAG does. Perhaps one of the Middle East airlines tries to get IAG to route more of its Asian passengers through a hub in the Gulf, at the cost of direct Europe-Asia flights ?
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 11th Jul 2012 at 15:12.