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Old 11th Jun 2012, 03:32
  #1197 (permalink)  
Machinbird
 
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ALF posted a link to a very appropriate paper. The gist of it is in 3 key paragraphss.

Originally Posted by ALF from Errors in Aviation Decision Making
Thus, there are two major ways in which error may arise. People may (a) develop a wrong interpretation of the problem, which leads to a wrong decision because they are solving the wrong problem -- an SA error, or (b) establish an accurate picture of the situation, but choose the wrong course of action -- a CoA error.

Situation assessment errors can be of several types: situation cues may be misinterpreted, misdiagnosed, or ignored, resulting in a wrong picture; risk (threat or danger) levels may be misassessed; or the amount of available time may be
misjudged.

Errors in choosing a course of action may also be of several types. In rule-based decisions, the appropriate response may not be retrieved from memory and applied, either because it was not known or because some contextual factor mitigated against it. In choice decisions, options also may not be retrieved from memory, or only
one may be retrieved when in fact multiple options exist. Constraints or factors that
determine the adequacy of various options may not be retrieved or used in evaluating the options. Finally, the consequences of various options may not be considered. The decision maker may fail to mentally simulate the possible outcomes of each considered option. Creative decisions may be the most difficult because they
involve the least support from the environment. The absence of available options means candidate solutions must be invented to fit the goals and existing conditions.
I can see AF447 as Situation Assessment error leading to a Course of Action error (Creative). The initial roll oscillation figures into this.
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