As someone with a different background to most here (but not that different) a lot of the problems I see come from the “system” no longer articulating requirements, then quantifying against that requirement. Everything is so bloody vague these days.
We used to have 1st, 2nd and 3rd Order Assumptions; the last issued every February. In very general terms, a 1st would say (in this case) “We’re going to have an RAF with an MPA capability to do x, y, z”. God would issue that one. The 2nd, issued by God-1 in London, would say “To meet the 1st, we need qty x squadrons, they shall be located here, there and wherever, with y aircraft, shall average z hours per year and need the following kit”.
The 3rd would quantify that kit and make Materiel and Financial provision for the whole life; ensuring the 1st, 2nd and 3rd could be reconciled in the Defence Plan. If it couldn't be reconciled, you raised the red card. In my domain (avionics) that post came with a unique authority to overrule the permanent LTC Instructions using Engineering Judgement. (Something similar to airworthiness delegation; one had to have actually worked on the kit you were responsible for, at all Depths).
Fine tuning was done in the Autumn as part of the Alternative Assumptions. One always remembers these periods, because leave was cancelled for two 6-week periods, something you understood when applying for the job.
Today, very little of the above is carried out. The 3rd bit not at all. The 2nd barely, because the 1st is so vague. The whole cannot be reconciled, which is the important point I’m making. No-one has ability to raise a knowldgeable red card anymore.
The person who did the 3rd was the person who (a) Was seen to “own” the kit, a named individual responsible for Availability, Maintainability, Reliability etc and (b) Was the author of Board Submissions (now called Business Cases – hate that term). He worked for the User organisation, in an HQ staff post. Neither concept exists today. If you were any good, you may get lucky and be promoted to the most junior project manager level in PE. Another alien concept today.
The result is that nobody has a scoobie what’s going on. It results in announcements like the one being discussed, that MPA tasks can be undertaken by a vague mix of C130, Merlin and Joe Bloggs in his garden shed. I came to the conclusion long ago that the deliberate running down of this system, which worked very well, was designed to avoid politicians and VSOs being pinned down, allowing them to lie through their back teeth. As far as I can see, there has been no benefit since introduced.
But the resultant waste has been truly astronomical and the inability to carry out basic tasks has made MoD UK Ltd a laughing stock. MoD will never return to anything like this, because it is too embarrassing. The Bernard Gray’s of this world are beavering away trying to formulate alternative cunning plans, but the option to use a proven system is denied them. I sympathise. Even if allowed to propose such a reversion, he hasn’t got the staff anymore. We’ve dumbed down too much, as a Department of State and as a Nation.