Surprise Australian GDP growth is good news for our industry
After several recent government reports indicated a gloomy forecast for our economy, the Reserve Bank reduced the official interest rate to 3.5% in early June 2012. Things seemed a little glum?
However, several days later Australians were stunned when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures were released which indicated the opposite! In fact, the economy is growing at its fastest annual rate since the start of the global financial crisis around September 2007.
Most of the annual growth came from the three mining states; the Northern Territory which recorded a growth rate of 13.8%, Queensland 9% and Western Australia 7.7%. Naturally, this has caused some degree of optimism in the helicopter industry as these three states have around 1,200 helicopters (60%) of the 1,959 rotorcraft on the CASA Aircraft Register.
AHIA stated June figures were a complete surprise as we were expecting a slowdown in the Australian economy following the unstable events in Europe and the perception China was experiencing a slowdown in growth. It is hoped the continuing expansion of the energy and resources boom in the north of Australia will continue and drive up the demand for helicopters to an even higher level than the present growth rate of 10%.
Sixty percent of our helicopters are located in the three states now enjoying enormous economic growth and as yet most projects are nowhere near fully developed. For example, the ABC recently stated the 40 mining companies who are commencing a major expansion of their capacity within Queensland had accumulated a profit of $133 billion in the past year. These figures are really quite extraordinary even before the bulk of the on-site workers are yet to arrive!
Note for international readers. Australia has a population of 22 million, about the size of a major city elsewhere in the world? Queensland 4.4 million, the same as nearby New Zealand).
The AHIA also believes there has been little discussion about the fly-in fly-out workers who may need helicopter transportation from the regional airports, out to the far-flung mining sites and back. Hopefully, this could be an opportunity to introduce high capacity passenger carrying helicopters to facilitate the movement of specialist (expensive) technical staff between the outlying industrial sites and the regional airport, where the passengers would then connect with their return flight to the capital cities, etc.
Australia is really a lucky country. The annual growth rate is now 4.3%, which is highest since September 2007. The unemployment figures have continued to drop and now are at 4.9% which is an extraordinary figure when you compare the unemployment rates in the rest of the developed nations.
Despite this growth rate inflation is down to 1.6% which is well below the government target of 3%. And of course, the official interest rates have now been reduced to 3.5% with a possible cut in August, according to media reports.
The AHIA is making good progress in developing a representative body to replace the Helicopter Association of Australasia (HAA) which collapsed in October 2008, after serving industry for a quarter of a century. The helicopter fleet then numbered 1,450. Despite an accelerating growth rate three times that of the past GDP and ten times more than the aeroplane fleet; the helicopter industry has had no representative body.
The not-for-profit AHIA will provide a wider coverage of industry than the previous HAA which was basically a pilots’ association. In the past, this suited the needs of an industry then operating relatively unsophisticated rotorcraft, where logistic and maintenance support requirements were minimal. Today, more expensive and technically advanced helicopters are coming into service and the logistical and technical support industry has developed substantially, due to the increasing number of civilian and military heavy helicopters.
The news of the registration of the AHIA in July 2012 has been well received.
An inaugural executive group will appointed several months later. This process will be formalised around December 2012 when the first AGM will be held. The new executive will be tasked with updating the Constitution and seeking issues which are troubling operators and regulators alike.
This team will then be available to work with Aerospace Australia Limited (AAL) to promote the helicopter industry at the Avalon Airshow 2013 if needed. This is currently being discussed and progress has been very good. Readers will remember how the AAL provided facilities at Avalon 2005 for the first HAA Helicopter Showcase. The following year the HAA was provided with a venue at Darling Harbour to run HAA’s Rotortech 2006, next to the major maritime convention known as Pacific 2006. The latter was attended by Naval and Army helicopter key people, aviation executives and helicopter regulators from CAANZ and our CASA.
Based on the recent changes of the distribution of the helicopter operators and other industrial facilities, the AHIA has proposed their new structure will include a National Executive, (President, Vice President, Treasurer, Secretary and Membership Coordinator).
There will be six Branches which will cover the current CASA boundaries.
Last but not least there will be Divisions which will focus on the specific development of new operational roles, advances in technology and large industry groups, such as: SAR, HEMS, off shore, mustering, training, police and CASA regulatory review of NPRM, etc.
The AHIA will cover more than the HAA in the international aviation community by monitoring at least a dozen other helicopters association around the globe. The US based HAI, in particular, has a long history of working with Australians. The AHIA will join forces with the Australian Army Aviation Association to be a partner at various trade shows and seminars, such as the Rotortech 2006 in Sydney.
The aim of the overseas links is to be part of the enormous growth in helicopter training activities which will occur in the Asian region, much the same way as Australia supported the Asia-Pacific airline industry pilot training programmes. Initial enquiries show the education, training and auditing needs of the nearby emerging regional economies is substantial.
At present helicopters make up 13% of the 14,711 aircraft on the CASA Aircraft Register. A decade ago it was less than 9%. Despite the GFC, helicopter numbers have increased in Australia by 53% over six years, or 9% per year. New Zealand’s helicopters represent 17% of their 4,600 aircraft. Their growth rate has slowed to 3% per annum due to the post GFC problems.
CASA has 947 current Air Operators’ Certificate holders of which 259 are helicopter. Although helicopters make up only have 13% of the overall aircraft fleet, they have 28% of the AOCs. The large mustering industry has 69 (27%) of aerial work AOC. Charter numbers are 190 (74%) of which 15 (6%) have international approvals. This latter group is entering a growth phase due to energy exploration operations being planned in the north of Australia.
The AHIA welcomes expressions of interest from people who would like to work within any of the proposed segments of the AHIA as it is being built up later this year. A complimentary monthly electronic newsletter is available – just send your contact details to industryassociation[at]bigpond[dot]com