What a lot of common sense from Scroggs. Crises always loom larger at the time than in retrospect. While there will be carriers (and schools) who go under during this hiccup, there will be others who come to the fore during the lean times. EasyJet are reporting year-on-year increases in passenger numbers. Many airline recruiters are looking forward to the other side of this dip and realising that, once the ‘pool’ of displaced pilots is used up, there will still be a shortage of Qualitypilots. The truth is that there has not been a pilot shortage during the last few years – just a Qualityshortage.
The short sighted carriers will drop their support for the an-initio stream. Those with foresight know that people will continue to retire during the recession, indeed some good people will take the opportunity for early retirement. The brakes on growth for someone like EasyJet have been lack of Captains (that’s why their entry requirements have been higher than ‘stagnant’ airline; every FO recruit has to be capable of moving to the LHS in a very short time), lack of routes and lack of slots. All of a sudden, there are lots of experienced pilots on the market, and competitors dropping routes and slots daily.
Ask yourself these questions; if you were a senior manager at a low cost carrier:
• Facing these opportunities and increased passenger demand, would you plan to grow, stand still, or shrink?
• Assuming your answer is grow, will you recruit all potential captains as before (expensive?) or equal numbers of ready made captains and first job FOs (lower cost?)
Watch this space for dramatic changes in the short-haul carrier market and the recruitment market, and put yourself in a position to benefit. But please bear in mind that desperate schools will take your money and train you to pass the licence come what may. Not everyone is cut out for this profession. Position of a licence is not a ticket to a job, it’s a given; you have to be a good prospect. Qualitypilots will find employment. Those who struggle against all odds to achieve an IR pass, taking many attempts to get through the JAA exams and the CPL and IR may have an equal struggle in finding an employer.
So my advice is, before you part with your money, go through a selection process, and enrol only on a course that is (still) backed by the airlines. Alternatively, follow the Flying Instructor route, preferably with a commercial rather than PPL school. It will be tempting to take a low cost route during a recession, but you will be competing with the best when it comes to chasing that job.