I couldn't help wondering if their plans could be feasible, even if everything goes according to plan.
RTM is slot controlled. The current cap for S12 is 11,828 slots of which 9,544 were allocated (thus leaving 2,284). Now, if you want a weekday only service you need 420 slots for S12. Assuming that all the current operators will use their historic allocation for S13 that leaves 2,284 slots + a few for growth. Moreover, also assuming that BA won't start LHR-RTM and that all slots go to Europort Express (which the current operators won't like) you have 2,284 / 420 = 5.4 trips left for S13 when only operating on weekdays (lets say 6 take offs + landings). Question, how can you operate a business friendly schedule with more than 2 destinations out of RTM? OK maybe they shut down for the entire holiday period (saving 1,680 slots) but even then the average number of trips will only increase to 6.7. Or will RTM see a very large increase in slots the coming years?
BTW I know my calculations carry a lot of assumptions and are based on S12 rather than the S13 situation, but as far as I know historic slot slot allocations are based on the same season (thus S12 vs S13). Moreover, if BA starts to fly to RTM, the pool of slots will probably go down drastically, unless LH or another airline suddenly decides to drop RTM. Ultimately I can't see any airline operating into RTM serving 9 destinations at a business friendly schedule (thus at least twice a day on weekdays, which will mean 7,560 S12 slots). At least, not as long as AF/KL control 70% of the slots at RTM (AF/KL control 8,300 out of the 11,828 slots for S12). Thus my conclusion is their ultimate plan can not be achieved out of RTM.
Last edited by lgtjanssen; 26th May 2012 at 08:36.