Terrain avoidance question
Background ...
ATC Watcher
According my sources the aircraft was flight planned to do the demos in a training area where MSA is below 6000 , ATC cleared a/c to descend to 6000 in that area.
Aircraft made evolutions in the area as planned but then ,apparently without clearance and radio contact ,left the area and flew towards the mountain.
Annex14
There is another (second) blog of Mr. Soejatman where he has charted a possible flightpath of the second flight. It appears to be possible that the flight received that
descend clearance overhead the "Bogor Training Area" (purple line rectangular area on the map of post # 465) and descended under Radar control into that airspace
[then] performed there what ever they had planned.
Soeman then speculates that their final turn towards the airport may have been delayed because of difficulties contacting ATC at their busiest time of day.
[The implication being that their flight plan did not appreciate the imminent dangers of continuing on their current flight-path. Perhaps because of the use of
inadequate maps/charts.]
Comment ...
This starts to look like it could have been a gentle "taxi ride" that went wrong.
From posts earlier in the thread, visibility restrictions may well have prevented them seeing the developing danger.
Question ... if the above scenario is approximately true, and considering the nasty nature of the terrain they were to meet:
How well would you expect the terrain warning system to perform?
Would you expect it to have warned them in good time to take effective avoidance action.
How much would be down to luck. For example first contact being a ridge or a valley.