PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - North Sea Helicopter ditching 10th May 2012
Old 23rd May 2012, 07:55
  #248 (permalink)  
gasax
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Aberdeen
Posts: 1,234
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
No you're not being a scaredy cat!

One of the major problems with the latest design codes (not just in aviation but also in my area of offshore O&G), it that they allow manufacturers to produce designs which are supposedly based on a reliability assessment. The infamous 1 x 10-9 failure criteria. As a concept it is fine - the failure is that obviously it is based upon 'engineering' estimates. So the manufacturer designs something new and does some testing. With luck that will be a couple of hundred hours, maybe even a couple of thousand - but obviously seriously short of 1 billion. His people then extrapolate that using the data from a different design. Hey presto it is certified.

Then it gets into service and much like software we all become beta testers.

Unfortunately extrapolating from very short periods of testing is horribly inaccurate - and manufacturers never give products the sort of treatment they get in the field.....
gasax is offline