henra
Did I overlook any other option?
Yes and not only one , there are all the technical failures possibilities , the human interferences ones , etc..
That is why it is better to wait for the CVR that will give some clues ( or perhaps not)
However in this case, in the meantime the media propaganda is likely to be in full gear: the Indonesians to prove that they did not do anything wrong, the Russians that the aircraft was not at fault and is safe to buy. So caution on what you read on the media.
loose rivets :
I guess the radar operator would only have got primary for a while, and that may well have been very weak even at that range.
Anyone know how long it takes for secondary display to kick back in.
(They do have secondary, don't they?
"Radar operators " are called Air traffic controllers today. They issue instructions if you are in IFR to keep you clear of other aircrfat and terrain.
In this case ,the R/T exchange reported in the media ( if they are correct ) would indicate that the aircraft flew VFR . If this is confirmed , then the controllers are releived from their responsibility of separate for terrain ( read flying below MSA ) and depending on the class of airspace you are in they do not have to monitor the flight on radar anymore. If you subsequently crash, of course we can find your track on the video recording, but while you crash no-one is likely to be looking at you on radar.
( excatly what happenned on the 2 recent crashs in Nepal by the way)
For your info in the XXI st century,in civilian ATC , Primary radar is the exception, SSR secondary the norm .. Return depends on Antenna rotation and availibility or not of a multiple radar tracking system , ,but to give you an idea, anything between 3 and 10 seconds.
.