SUB.
I hope you are right, but I wouldn't be too sure.
There are plenty of indicators that the company has been keen to get AIPA into arbitration. Not the least of which has been the tactic of 'agreeing' on an EBA point during one meeting and then saying "nah thats now off the table" during the next meeting. I reckon that really fancy their chances.
The fact that the full bench of FWA is stacked with ex-Freehills lawyers might have something to do with this.
As a minority government, desperately clinging to power, the faction of Labor that controls the Caucus at the moment has been desperate to keep big business happy where it could.
Shorten and Julia saw what the miners and the BCA did to Rudd, and know what they have to do to stay in power. Sacrificing a few silver tail pilots to an ideological agenda is a small price to pay in that regard. There is no question in my mind that they knew, or strongly suspected, that Joyce was going to ground the airline.
The fact that Julia directed the Government to 'strongly appose' AIPA's application to the High Court speaks volumes in this regard.
As I said, I hope I am wrong, but I believe AIPA is going to get smashed in arbitration. I remember Joyce's body language on the day of the grounding and the day FWA cancelled the industrial action - he was cock a hoop. The plan was now all falling into place.