NaB,
I think we're in violent agreement really. I'm looking forward to Ursula Brennan's next trip to the Public Accounts Committee to justify whatever decision is made.
I always assumed that all procurement decisions have to be made based on the full spectrum of DLOD costs. Whether the national press understand that when they come out with their soundbites may be the root cause of some of the trouble here.
My understanding is/was that people had run the DLOD numbers over the -B vs -C debate time and time again over more than a decade. Every single time, no matter who did the numbers, the answer was always that the total through life costs favored the -B. Allegedly when the numbers were scrubbed again pre-SDSR the answer was again the same and the military advice was to stay with the -B. The switch to the -C was apparently made at a political level then, blind-sided everyone and its rationale was never explained in any detail (certainly not to chimps at my level). For me, it was a masterstroke of political spin that you could suggest that mothballing one carrier and then spending at least 500 million on equipping your other carrier with cats (and ignoring the tanker & training costs etc) could be sold as more capability and cheaper. How could switching to the -C, which would always cost us more up-front and all the previous decade's analysis suggested would cost more through-life, ever be cheaper?
Technical risk is definitely worth considering and there's no question that the -B has plenty. But you have to give credit that it has done a stack of VLs now and been to the ship, so you'd hope there aren't too many undiscovered gremlins now and the Pax folks are slowly resolving the known ones.
I think it's interesting that people generally seem to believe that the -B is the most threatened of the variants, which I don't agree with. If the US need to axe a variant to save cash, if they chop the -B they effectively kill USMC fixed wing aviation. Both their Harrier and Hornet fleets are very old and tired, and the fleet of amphibs and their MEUs will eventually have to go without - pretty unacceptable to every USMC general walking the corridors of the Pentagon. But if they chop the -C, the USN would probably almost clap with glee, toddle off to Mr Boeing and buy a few more of their beloved Rhinos & Growlers, and place an order for a few X-45s to do the really nasty missions. To my mind then, the -C is just as much, if not more, at risk of being the victim of a cost-saving exercise.
Regards,
Single Seat, Single Engine, The Only Way To Fly