There's an interesting point here and I'd be grateful for any comment from more experienced safety practitioners.
The sort of incident being discussed here is one where a switch was not correctly selected, or left incorrectly set. The point is - how does one assess the probability of someone making an error like that? You can mitigate the effects by system indications and attention getters, but at some stage you get to the stage where if a pilot pulls a lever or makes a switch when it's not safe to do so, you probably have an incipient accident under way.
Even if you could mitigate it, you'd need to state a probability of error at the start of any fault tree analysis.
So, does anyone know of any approved criteria for assessing probability of operator error?
Best Regards as ever,
Engines