I don't think it will take the company 'announcing' bases are done to start at least a small exodus. I agree that they will never outright say they are done b/c a lot will leave, however, I personally believe that their silence speaks volumes. Their lack of communication regarding this to me says it all.
In the US alone, you have a once in a lifetime tidal wave of retirements beginning coupled with airlines like DAL looking at new contracts relatively soon. If AMR/USAir happens it will be pegged to DAL rates. It would easily be worth it to leave CX even after 10 years here to be at the beginning of that type of wave from a $$ and lifestyle perspective. Sure, upgrade times may be similar but would you rather be senior in your seat in the US with a free commute and short trips, or pay for your commute to do an 11 day pattern that you have no say in?
And finally, please those that take their retirement money as cash.....please stop counting it as salary. It is not. I hear all the time that we get paid in accordance with other US majors. We do not. We get paid relatively similar if you INCLUDE our 15.5%. Don't forget that most US majors offer anywhere from 10-16% B-plans/401K match as well in addition to their salaries.