Bloggs; "So you've done a cost-benefit analysis on say a half a dozen airlines individually getting RNP-AR approvals".
No, I havn't, and you know that-so what is your point?
What I am saying is I don't believe it will happen because the airport would ideally like to pass the technology/infrastucture over to the airlines to save them money. As far as "the smaller operators that don't have a hope of ever attaining RNP-AR capability" go, I am sure they couldn't care less about them. Landing fees and revenue in the pax terminal (primarily the latter) are what counts. (A aircraft that holds ten or so is not high on the list for improving infrastucture/safety for the bean counters at GCAPL). It makes sense for domestic airlines to be RNP APP approved (not just for OOL)- GCAPL knows that.
What I was saying however, is that it will be a shame if they don't install one, as it will deter potential new international airlines. International airline execs don't want/need the hassle of sending their shiny new Boeingbus to a regional, infrastucture deficient airport in Australia only to have it divert because someone forgot/chose to not install an ILS there. The Gold Coast city/region doesn't need that-it will hurt the economy.
My bet is that it they won't install an ILS. I just hope they install some HIALS to lower the visibility minima. That in conjunction with RNP approaches will be a massive improvement. No use being at 250 feet in driving rain or scud if you can't see some really bright approach lights as well as the recently installed "high-intensity runway lighting that allows pilots to see the runway from great distances, even during bad weather."
NB. I acknowledge it will be impossible to install HIALS on 14 due to current land use but maybe they could buy some land off farmer Joe for the 32 end. His cows could still eat grass around the posts.
Oh and here is a cynical thought. On the day I was stuck in that terminal for hours due to diversions there were thousands of people in the terminal. About threefold the usual number- all spending at the retail and food outlets. Did GCAPL total revenue go down that day because there were less aircraft movements? Not so sure.