If BA are no longer talking to 'Granite' as is suggested above, then that is worrying - unless there is another game in town. If not, then what is the point of BA, having said Regional doesn't feature in its plans, not selling it to someone that puts in a reasonable offer to take it off its hands? What has BA got to lose?
Whilst the bmi companies already hold AOCs, a change of ownership will trigger interest from the CAA. The impediments to selling BMIR and/or baby to "anyone who comes along" include the following, from the CAA website:
Finance
Before a Type A Operating Licence is granted, airlines must demonstrate that they have enough funding for the first two years of operation. Once a licence is granted, the CAA will in most cases continue to monitor their finances and may revoke the licence of any licence holder that it considers no longer has sufficient resources to carry on its business. Further details of what is required from different types of air operator after a licence is granted are set out in Licensing Airlines in the UK
Financial Resources
15. Article 5.1 of the Licensing Regulation requires that an applicant for an Operating Licence must be able to demonstrate that it can meet its obligations, established under realistic assumptions, for the first 24 months of its operation; and that it can meet its costs for the first three months of operation without any income. Article 5.2 specifies the information which must be provided for the licensing authority to reach a decision on these criteria. Article 5.3 makes an exception for operators of aircraft with less than 20 seats or 10 tonnes maximum take-off weight, who may instead either demonstrate a minimum capitalisation or supply information to the licensing authority on being requested to do so.
17. For operations using larger aircraft, the CAA requires applicants to provide a business plan for the first two years of operation and considers this to decide how much capital is necessary to meet the criteria set out in Article 5.1. It looks critically at forecast traffic, revenue and costs in the light of information on similar routes or operations, taking into account the existence of contracts and the degree of risk involved. Before reaching a final view, it discusses with the applicant any aspects where it believes the forecasts are optimistic. It then adjusts them if appropriate and indicates a figure for capitalisation which is intended to ensure that there will be a surplus of net assets and sufficient cash resources during the first two years of operation. The CAA will grant an Operating Licence only when the necessary financial arrangements have been executed and the other criteria have been met.
Financial Monitoring and Regulation
24. Article 8 of the Licensing Regulation requires operators to notify licensing authorities of changes to their operation and, if requested to do so, to supply revised business plans. Article 9 gives licensing authorities the power to suspend or revoke a licence if they are no longer satisfied that the holder can meet its financial obligations for the next 12 months. In the UK, decisions by the CAA are subject to published procedures and to appeal to the Secretary of State, as set out in the CAA Regulations7 [7].
25. The Licensing Regulation leaves it to the discretion of licensing authorities how far they should regulate an operator’s finances after an Operating Licence has been granted, and the extent to which the CAA intervenes in the finances of licensed airlines varies according to the category of business. It does so chiefly where there is a consumer protection issue, and where it has the ability to influence events so as to benefit the operator’s customers; there is also an issue of materiality, with the potential benefits set against the costs of monitoring.
27. The CAA monitors the financial performance and position of most other operators, and may in certain circumstances take action to revoke an Operating Licence. Its objective in doing so is primarily to secure a better outcome for the travelling public, and revocation will in many cases not have this effect: revoking a licence will turn a potential failure into an actual failure and may lead to losses on the part of ticket holders and disruption to passengers’ travel plans. However, revocation or suspension may still achieve a benefit if it minimises the effects of an inevitable failure, and this may happen where a charter operator’s licence is revoked outside the peak season or a scheduled operator’s licence is revoked so as to prevent planned expansion. These principles are behind the extent to which the CAA may require more detailed information from certain types of operator at particular times, such as prior to major expansions.