Sorry mate, probably the sort of conversation that would take 1 minute over a beer.
F35A could fulfill the criteria for DPOC, the GR4 replacement. £1 billion had been allotted to DPOC. Given the length of gestation these days it was safe to say that any manned solution to DPOC would involve F35A.
SDSR chose Tornado over Harrier/CVS in the knowledge that this would save money in the short term (about £300 million over 3 years) but lose in the long term (£680 million more expensive over 10 years).
Something had to give and the obvious economy was that if we chose the C model for JCA then we could still meet some DPOC criteria - at this point the the F35As you were briefed about disappeared. The £1 billion was folded into the cost of the ship upgrade.
So I guess what I am saying is that you can either view the decision to save Tornado as a decision that consigned its successor to the dust bin. Or you can (to my mind) skew the argument and and start talking about JCA as the de facto GR4 replacement.
The alternative is to revert to STOVL and ask for that DPOC money back - which may eventually result in a mixed A/B fleet for the JCA/ DPOC requirement. It might result in a B that deosn't work and DPOC money already spent on GR4 which (as rumour has it) has eaten a further £1 billion since SDSR.
I personally Lowe Fleiger has it right and I suspect that DC could be aided in growing a pair if he was being briefed honestly and competently. I fail to see how a U-turn is necessary unless someone has dropped an almighty ball, someone has been unable to deliver on a promise or someone no longer likes the deal they made having had 18 months of 'cold light of day'.
The dithering has to be a result of incompetent staff work (when we phoned they said EMALS was a fiver but we've double checked and it's now £1.7 billion), conflicting advice probably due to single service agenda (surely not) or the fact that no-one knows the facts...a known unknown if you will.
There are only two reasons for the U-turn which appear credible to my mind. The first is that industry simply isn't up to the challenge and has had it's bluff called despite ridiculous tariffs. The second is that someone in MoD has realised the full implications of SDSR and wants a new deal.
Last edited by orca; 22nd Apr 2012 at 01:25.