I like tea.. I was thinking about that myself.... It is a tough one!
My take on the Airbus advise is they are really leading you towards not evacuating... Unless you get information from a source other than the aircraft systems (actual smoke, fire or fire service reports)
Of course they can't say don't evacuate.. Because there are so many variables, but it does leave us in an area where people have various opinions.
I would imagine if the fire service are watching the hold with their thermal imaging camera and can't detect anything untoward and they continue to watch it (which they would) the risk would be pretty low (probably lower than the risk due to an evacuation)
In the event something did go Amis you can start an evac and they are already in a position to put several 1000 GPM of foam onto the "fire" actually within the space of a couple of seconds could completely fill the cargo hold with foam.