PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - BA/bmi merger (was Virgin & Balpa - bmi next ?)
Old 5th Apr 2012, 16:17
  #259 (permalink)  
757_Driver
 
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If we can cut through all the vitriol for a moment theres a bit of an elephent in the room that seems to have gone un-noticed - either that or I've got the wrong end of the stick

For avoidance of abuse I'd like to state that I'm looking at this from a purely commercial point of view, and clearly my future colleages at BMI have "value" and are not just "liabilities", but commercially:....

The original agreement from BACC (pp34, £10m savings etc etc), was based on the premise, and calculations by IAG, that we bought BMI in its entirety. The only real value in BMI was the slots, the rest, financially, is just one huge liability. thanks to branson and some scottish politicians we are now only buying 75% of BMI, but still get 100% of the liabilities.

Now clearly branson is all flash and no cash, and dispite Alex Salmonds posturing, nobody actually wants to fly to scotland, otherwise the aircraft that do wouldn't be 1/2 empty at the moment, so its likely that we will get those slots back, but its a brave man that mortgages the future on that assumption

I'm no financial wizzkid, but even I can see that inheriting 100% of the million-per-day losses and 100% of the staff and airframe leases, but only 75% of the slot asset value and income potential, must change the assumptions hugely.

I'm assuming that there are some at IAG board level who are more canny than I at business and will have worked this out for themselves - but what are the ramifications at the coal face? does this change things so much that the orignal BACC vote and assumptions are now way wide of the mark and we need to bring more to the table? or walk away? does it even make the whole deal viable at all?
what about BMI? not only is there the question of BMIr and BMIb, but mainline now will have a significant crew surplus.
I don't wish to see anyone loose their job, but in the current climate can we carry that surplus and what do we need to bring to the table to make that happen?

Surely rather than obsessing about the fine details at the end of the deal, we should all be looking at wether the deal is worthwhile at all, and what these changes mean to us all.
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