PN, i think that she can count, and that she sees 4 fast jests, an Inf Coy and 8,000 miles of rather emptier ocean than was the case in 1982 - that the capabilities of those four fast jets means that her AF may as well be flying Sopwith Camels is probably not something that she really understands.
i'm not saying she's dumb, i'm saying that is a subject outside of her universe - i have a PhD, but i'll never really understand what electricity is or how it works until my dying day - i think she has a relationship with her military that hovers between loathing and outright contempt (understandable, given her political history), and that the intricacies of NEZ's, RCS, servicablity and sortie rates etc.. mean as much to her as you saying 'imagine the inside of a star' does to me.
i also think that we have a nasty habit of assuming that our own political decision making process is shared by everyone else - that whats logical or illogical to us will be the same to others - the big one being 'her military will tell her its not a winner, and she'll accept their advice'. i don't believe their dynamic works like that - i think they'll tell her it'd be hard, and that they'd take heavy casualties - but most importantly, unlike here, if her DS resign and go public, she won't fall, she'd probably reach sainthood.
if we want to stop a war taking place, rather than just win one, we have to convince her that its a no hoper from the start - and that, imv, means more than 4 fighters...