The greatest concern in the whole fighter/bomber saga, has been a number of public about faces by RAAF leadership and the courageous decision of a former Defense Minister to bridge the air combat gap with a Super Hornet purchase.
The RAAF publicly pushed the necessity of a 100 JSF fighter fleet to meet Australia's air combat needs. Yet, they were prepared to gamble on the JSF and rely on a fleet of old F111's and legacy Hornets until JSF arrived in numbers. This gamble would have seen Australia languishing with less than half of that "100 aircraft required fleet" by 2017 onwards.
It does make me wonder, if Sunfish was on the money, alluding to defense leaders more interested in finishing their careers in highly paid civilian consultancy positions, with contractors they supported whilst in uniform.
The two scenarios I'd consider in the re-equipment of the RAAF strike and fighter force are-
1) Can the RAAF comfortably defeat an Asian 4th generation threat within the next 10 years?
2) How well will the RAAF slot into a US air campaign?
In meeting the above, the Super Hornet/Growler/Legacy Hornet coupled with advanced stand-off weapons and Wedgetail should be sufficient. Which points toward an extra Super Hornet purchase.
Down the track, this will lend toward a hi-lo mix of Super Hornets/Growlers and a reduced JSF purchase. Which should make up the numbers for a RAAF 100 aircraft fighter fleet.
Moving beyond the 10-15 year mark, and how successful will a JSF and Growler combo be in defeating a local foe and slotting in with American air forces? Pretty good I'd suggest. And the Super Hornet fleet would be looking at replacement with an expected array of unmanned options.