Mr Very Long Acronym...
Some of your points have been addressed. May I add some observations?
PW-IV is the initial standard, indeed - but then, as long as the UK was getting the B, that or a 1K JDAM was all you could get in there. In a 30-year service life, all sorts of new requirements will emerge, along with new weapons. Other things being equal (and assuming that the entire JSF operation does not crater) the developers of those weapons will be looking harder at 1500-2000 A and C models than at 500 Bs.
Yes, the C is heavy (with a 5500 pound OEW Catobar penalty versus the A... check the difference between Rafale variants
) but it does have a lot more fuel and more wingspan, which should improve L/D in some regimes. Transonic drag will be... well, a drag. Neither the B nor the C is going to be a Typhoon or a Su-35.
"Through-life costs are anyone's guess."
After ten years and $30-plus billion they
ing well shouldn't be...
The offsetting point of fewer training cycles and costs is important.
But... Again, we're looking at a 30-year lifetime. We already know how to make carrier recovery automatic. Fundamentally, the reason STOVL is so easy is because the jet is a UAV on landing. The pilot has no physical link to the effectors at all and might as well be sitting on the ground with a virtual-reality headset on.
In this respect, the difference between STOVL and Catobar is that everyone accepts that you could never hand-fly a B in powered-lift, and that the only way to do it is to place the pilot in a supervisory/command role.
Can we do autoland with Catobar? Of course, and it's being done in the course of UCAV work. Sooner or later economics will trump manliness and that is how it will be done all the time, and if the Chinese decide that's how they'll do it from Day 1, you read it here first and I will not be surprised. Once your jet is FBW and Fadec, you have the pieces in place.
Range? It's not just range, it's persistence, it's flexibility. See this:
Range, Persistence, Stealth and Networking: The Case for a Carrier-Based Unmanned Combat Air System | CSBA
Robert Work? Hmm, wonder where he went?