Given the radar altitude returns, I don't think CFIT, whiteout and hidden ridges etc are to blame here. Assuming they are accurate (and if they're not then all bets are off), the radar returns show the aircraft in a gradual climb already established above the altitude of the top of the mountain. The weather wasn't necessarily good and indeed the Gripen pilot reported the mountain to be covered in cloud at the time of the loss and other contemporaneous reports suggest very strong winds & poor weather in the area. The rescuers couldn't reach the area for some time due to the weather.
I am still of the opinion (for what it's worth) that they either saw the deteriorating weather ahead so elected to pull out of low level and climb to MSA or were climbing to pick up a radar service for recovery into Kiruna. There was probably no intention of routing via any of the IFR STARs - I certainly wouldn't have been considering the STARs if looking for a radar pick up to vectors ILS or visual. Assuming the altitude and wind reports are correct I can only assume that they either encountered a very large down-draught, very sudden severe icing or very intense lateral shear from which recovery was not possible. There may well have been some technical failure that coincided with their cresting Sweden's biggest mountain but I'm not convinced. Only a structural failure, massive icing or the loss of thrust on three or more engines would bring the aircraft down to the altitude at which it struck the ridge.
As long time J pilot I'm very interested in the cause of (and saddened by) this loss. This sort of sortie profile is the "bread and butter" of a tactical transport aircraft like the C130J which, despite being the same size (and a bit heavier) than a 737, is operated in a totally different way to similar civilian aircraft. Discussions of autopilots and IFR arrivals are irrelevant. Many of us, this crew included, spend/spent much of our time operating down at around 100m AGL, in the valleys, around, under and through bad weather and are familiar with the all the risks and traps that can lead CFIT. Familiarity doesn't automatically grant one immunity but, based on the altitude returns, weather reports, crew experience and equipment fit on the J, I just don't believe CFIT, whiteout etc were factors here.
Rick Studder - radar showed them being nearly 1000ft above the impact point 2 miles before it. Even at 180kt turbulence speed the aircraft would of have to have entered a 1500-2000fpm descent to get to the impact point from it's last radar return. It would take something pretty serious to bring that on....