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Old 17th Mar 2012, 15:51
  #855 (permalink)  
Lyman
 
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flying s

NeoFit

Thanks for the graphic, it is instructive. I consider this wreck to have two discrete phases, if not more. There is #1 the uncoupled a/p, manual control, and wild climb, leading to #2: STALL. Once STALLED, the a/c was in completely unknown territory, it was not "flying". It is fodder for endless speculation and dozens of "What ifs". Though these a/c have STALLED, they do so in other than NORMAL LAW, contrary to my friend ruolishollandais's statement that in French, the Report says STALL is impossible. Any a/c will STALL, and most have, with variable results.

One cannot fly this machine without instruments to inform. Not in these conditions. The Pilot Flying had none of his screen recorded. BEA does not go further. Was there anything to record? Did PNF call for Captain to sort a political discussion between the two seated pilots? That's provocative, but Occam would have it that Captain was called to help fly. There was no Captain referee, only Captain in attendance. "I have lost my vario" says Bonin, "Okay" says Captain.

No orders as to authority from Captain DuBois. None that are given us, in any case. So we are left with a narrative that I believe is lacking in data that would put in context what the conclusions are, or certainly at least suggested.

Mistake? BEA inadvertently included only pilot comment that leads to a definition of Pilot Error? Sure, pigs fly.

IR #2 has a description of previous UAS events to contextualize what happened to 447. It is instructive, and to me, estblishes that any UAS is fraught with risk, unaddressed SOP, and quite frankly, ignorance of the dangers by both manufacturer and line.

How do I know this? Because BUSS was not selected, and was "Optional" to the extent that pilot polling helped decide to deselect its presence in the cockpit.

An opinion poll to determine if pilots want to save their asses with a system that addresses a dangerous Condition? Blase? Perhaps, but it is so telling that UAS was not given the sort of attention it required.

Read IR #2 re: UAS. It describes a crapshoot, not a serious problem/address.

The conditions 447 found that night were severe, but not rare. To arrive at safety, risk is mitigated, not ignored.

Organfreak. Howdy, I mostly wanted to reframe the velocities for you. !5k fpm is 180 Miles Per Hour. That means in one minute, half of 447's altitude will be lost, and recovery will not be likely. That is why postSTALL events are not germane, imho. Once in the climb, and probably very quickly, the odds go sour for recovery. CRM is a relatively newly quantified concept, and arguments that say "Well,, PNF needed to...." Fine. However, if the last chance to live depends on politics, not command, well.........

adios.
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