Of course, if the ME does become politically unstable, then all bets are off.
Become?
I remember an introduction to that part of the world when my dad spent a year working on the Asir region of Saudi Arabia. He believer the world's two biggest powerkegs were there and Japan - the former due to religious intolerance, the latter because of their work culture.
He's got many things right, but Saudi has stayed remarkable stable so far. I think there is also a sufficient security presence to keep order in the UAE, not to mention that most people are there as guests, and they know that upsetting the authorities will only earn them one set of points on the Emirates loyalty scheme!
How about another scenario evolving over a slightly longer time line:
* Already, TK are becoming a major player, with a growing network of regional routes. A bit of a hybrid between Europe & the ME, but certainly one to watch.
* Egypt has always had a sizeable middle class. Any change of another carrier emerging from there?
* Afriqiyah was supposed to play on TIP being a major hub for Africa. My brother in his infinite wisdom booked a LOS-TIP-LHR routing for his father in law last year just as Tunisia and Egypt were kicking off, thinking "of all the north African leaders, Mad Dog will be the last to go...."
*Saudi is still going through a reform process, if only at a glacial ace. RUH, the largest airport in the world at the time, certainly has the room, but now SV are only a niche player. Saudi is still the largest market on the Arabian peninsular, so there is o&d demand too.
Now dare I get really bold and point out that Iraq and Iran too have young populations, and in Iran in particular, they are often well educated too. I can't say Tehran is high on my travel wishlist, but Lonely Planet had a great description of the Friday "Death to America" marches, when students would turn round and see a Westener, go over and be genuinely friendly and welcoming towards them!
Looking further east, Pakistan and India should also both be natural transfer points for the rest of Asia, and why not the Kangaroos too? Instead of course, this must surely be where the lion's share of EK's market - from UK regionals in particular - ends up. Now if they got organised, that might be a much bigger threat to EK / EY / QR than the other internal challenges they face.