Right I am not usually a poster on this forum but some of the attacks on the success of this raid are starting to irritate especially as they appear to be more born out of Dark Blue vs Light Blue service rivalry! All the old hackneyed reasons for why it shouldn't be seen as a success have come out:
They missed the runway (they didn't)
They only got one bomb on the runway (As planned getting NO BOMBS on the runway could still be a success)
The Harriers could of done better (it would of required all of them to fly low over the base and they didn't have the payload or fuel for the same effect)
In the context of how the raid was planned it was an utter success, people seem to think the Vulcan was somehow meant to fly down the runway and drop the whole stick along its length...that just isn't how the mission was planned! As planned the aircraft dropped the stick at a 35 degree angle to the runway the intention being to actually straddle it as close to the middle as possible (thats how no bombs hitting can still be classed as a success). The whole point is for the bombs to come in steep and bury themselves in the ground before exploding...this will then cause subsidence making the runway unsafe for fast jet operations. This is EXACTLY what happened with Black Buck 1, they came in and managed to clip the runway almost bang on the centre as planned.
In the end we can conclude after the event that the Argies didn't plan to operate jets off the runway but at the time we didn't know that. Whilst the Mirages and Daggers couldn't safely operate off the runway at Stanley the Skyhawks of the Airforce and the Navy might of, operating off the Falklands they could of been far more dangerous! Considering that unknown it was entirely reasonable having a stab at the runway and the taskforce commander was all up for if it added further confusion to the Argentine defenders! The Vulcan was the best way to effect that, all the Harriers of the task force would of had to fly directly over the airfield at lower level to drop the same tonnage of bombs and with less effect then the stick dropped at higher altitude by the Vulcan.
Black Buck got one bomb on the runway...yes but considering that falls exactly within the mission plan they should be given a bit more praise then unfair stick!