Size of UK aviation industry in 2027
As we gear up to the official consultation on London airport capacity, the first question to ask must surely be just how big the industry is likely to be by the time any new infrastructure is actually built.
I've picked 2027 as that is 15 years away, I don't see us designing and building anything sooner, although runway should be easier than railway!
So given the current challenges and opportunities, where will be by then, as a percentage of current throughput?
Challenges
* High fuel prices - likely to keep rising as oil is running out.
* Airlines dropping like flies.
* Even if economy picks up, debt mountain still remains.
* Increasing environmental awareness + used as excuse for APD.
* Most of recent growth has come from LCCs, who focus on ptp, not connecting traffic.
Opportunities
* People are still living longer with more leisure time.
* Emerging markets in former Eastern Bloc where propensity to fly is still a fraction of UK levels. Open borders have created business links and a huge growth in VFR.
* Suggestions that air freight might grow 7fold by 2050, according to "Sustainable Aviation".
* Continued growth in China, and likely rises in GDP in India to follow. Due to distance from the UK, these are often over-hyped relative to Eastern Europe, but recent growth of routes to LGW shows the demand is there.