PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Conflict looms in South China Sea oil rush
Old 29th Feb 2012, 18:01
  #8 (permalink)  
Fareastdriver
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 5,222
Likes: 0
Received 4 Likes on 3 Posts
One of the pre-occupations of Chinese foreign policy is righting what it considers are the wrongs of the last two hundred years. During the past millenniums it, with Japan, has been the major maritime power in the region with its influence stretching over the entire South China Sea. From the middle of the nineteenth century it was humiliated by every other major power in the world. This caused it to cede territory and have some of its major cities dissected with foreign powers having absolute control over their sections.

It is now the second largest industrial power in the world and it wants to correct the past and restore itself to what it feels that it was. The Communist Revolution restored the cities in 1949 and the end of the 20th Century saw Hong Kong return to Chinese rule. Macau was a different deal. That was a commercial arrangement between them and the Portuguese. Taiwan is a continuing sore in the side but they have not shelled the Matsu Islands for decades and they are looking for a diplomatic solution to that problem. They now feel that they have the economic power to correct the other injustices.

However: There are three quarters of a billion people who are looking at TV knowing that they are part of this enormous economy and they are demanding their share. China knows from its own and the Party’s history that revolutions start with dissatisfied peasants and it does not want another one. The government’s overwhelming objective is to continue their economic growth; they pumped half a trillion dollars into the economy recently to keep it going; and this is dependant on export markets. Upsetting your market base by pushing for your objectives militarily is not the way to do it.

Wait thirty of forty years. China is going to have its hands full until then.
Fareastdriver is offline