SAA is a ticking time bomb financially. One just has to look at the many government hand outs its needed and will continue to need to stay afloat.
Why is this? the major problem is SAA is battling to remain relevant in the wider global aviation market. In my view this is due to a few reasons:
-South Africa's geographic position forces SAA to focus on O&D traffic. This is why the route network has and will continue to shrink in real terms.
-Massive competition from not only legacy carriers but also the ones from the Middle East. SAA's product (holistically- FFP, route network, etc) is lagging behind. In add ton to this african carriers like Ethiopian and Kenya Airways are establishing their own networks that are diverting traffic away from SAA's Africa network.
-Domestic competition continues to grow. Comair's acquisition of new 800's is a watershed. Mango also seems destined to be rolled back into SAA at some point, which will have a negative effect on its cost base and by implication its fares.
-Political interference continues to hinder the company. Its an instrument of state.
SAA's future is secure as long as the government is happy to chip in cash when needed. How long will this last? Probably for a long time- right up until corruption has taken so much cash out the system that there is nothing left for SAA.