Is the expected career progression on a LH/SH airline - FO - SH- SFO - LH- Capt SH - CAP LH.
Depends on the airline. There's at least one I know of with a mix of SH and LH types where it's perfectly possible and normal to progress through the rank structure without spending any time in shorthaul.
Would a FO -SH be allowed to forgo the SFO-LH and wait for a SH command
Yes ( in the particular airline I'm referring to).