When will the industry be back to normal?
It depends on what your definition of normal is.
At this time of the year, year in year out, the airline industry supports itself from the shoulder months of the previous year. That is April/May to end of October. That, of course, is largely relevant to charter companies more than scheduled operators, but passenger figures always fall and they further fell disastrously low as a result of 11/9.
In October I gave an opinion on what I thought, from experience, the outcome of this might be. I said that I think we would see an upturn in business in March and further growth from then on. I think that will happen. What I also think will happen, is that this growth will encourage further growth. BAA have already seen signs of this and it will be interesting to see what Easter traffic is like. I would take a bet it won't be far off last year. As always, people have had enough of being "put down" and will start to migrate back to flying - probably in a mad rush. The short memory syndrome!
This effect, should it happen, will catch the airlines out. The result will be a shortfall in capacity and people will not be able to travel.
Much has been written in the past 24 hours about the Virgin deal. What other deals are being made as we speak we can only wonder. But I also bet that more aircraft are on the cards for other operators. More pilots will be wanted and I expect call-back lists have already been drawn up.
I also said that I thought that some pilots with low hours may find that they can get an interview if they push and shove their way through to the front. I think this is a probabilty too.
Long term I think the same applies now as it did after 11/9, that cadet schemes and other sponsorships will be hard to come by, but I am still sure they will start, albeit at low levels of activity. So you still have to keep up with the news.
Plan what you want to do according to your pocket and don't overstretch on the basis that one swallow makes a summer. Wait! The worm IS turning but as Scoggs says, there is still some way to go. Just how far may turn out to be a bit of a surprise.
But like I always say - DON'T GIVE UP!