Here is IATA's newest outlook for the future :
Passenger Forecast 2001-2005 Special Interim Edition
. .IATA: LATEST PASSENGER FORECAST SHOWS EFFECT OF SEPTEMBER 11th AND POINTS TO THE RECOVERY AHEAD
. .IATA’s ‘Passenger Forecast 2001-2005 Special Interim Edition’ reflects the sharp impact on the aviation business of the global downturn and September 11th. An initial 2001-2005 forecast withheld from publication in September 2001, has now been replaced by this new interim edition. The new forecast was completed with the help of input from IATA Member Airlines between November 2001 and January 2002. It also compares current views with the initial September five year forecast.
The Interim Forecast highlights the downturn in growth in 2001 and predicts a continued contraction in early 2002. However, it also reveals the scale and shape of the recovery expected from late 2002 onwards.
Some key findings are:
• The route areas where the five year forecasts average annual growth rate (AAGR) has significantly been downgraded from IATA’s original September forecast are: Transatlantic, Transpacific and Europe to the Middle East. These are also the markets to demonstrate the strongest recovery from 2003 onwards. . . . .• The Intra-European route area, the largest of the international passenger markets, is estimated to achieve an AAGR of over 4% over the period 2001-2005, with low-cost carriers continuing to stimulate demand.
• The AAGR for total scheduled international passengers is 3.5%, down from 4.7% in the original 2001 forecast. This growth is made up of a clear decline in 2001, stabilisation in 2002, and then recovery from 2003 onwards. On this projection the annual number of passengers on international scheduled services is estimated to reach 637 million by 2005.
• The outlook for growth in domestic passenger traffic shows an AAGR of 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the original forecast, The domestic forecast anticipates a decline in both 2001 and 2002, before recovery from 2003 onwards. On this projection the annual number of passengers on domestic scheduled services is estimated to reach 1.2 billion by 2005.
IATA’s Passenger Forecast Special Interim Edition was derived from a supplementary survey of the world’s major airlines, airports and civil aviation authorities, and the expert opinion and commentary of staff from within IATA’s Aviation, Information and Research department. This edition reports the consensus opinion of the aviation industry’s forecasting and strategic planning experts since September 11th, and provides commentary on the current and future development of the global passenger market.
Source: <a href="http://www.iata.org" target="_blank">www.iata.org</a>