from waht I am reading in the aviation press, I think we can forget about it being 'normal'ever again. The changes in legislation regarding EU negotiated agreements with the US, carriers going to the wall, low cost initiatives, changing fleets etc means that we may be entering a new and hence uncertain phase of development for the industry. My guess is that there will be more aircraft working harder by 2004 and there will be an instructor shortage in that year...and a pilot shortage the year after. Unless it all kicks off...
Just a guess