You heard it here first.
Within Two years, "Globalisation", "Offshoring" and "Outsourcing" of critical business technologies will be things of the past.
It's not just me saying this, it is at least one group of economists whose opinion I respect.
Globalization and Offshoring will be victims of political pressure and 20%+++ unemployment rates in Europe and America.
Outsourcing will be a vicitm of sovereign risk and commercial risk. To put that another way, how would you like to have your engine maintenance outsourced to Greece right now? What happens when your supplier suddenly can't get finance? What happens when your currency suddenly implodes?
To put that in an Australian context, if the Federal Government cannot by hook or by crook get some equalisation of gain and pain between the States then there is going to be what is euphemistically called "Social Unrest'.
The Federal resources rent tax (the mining tax) had better recycle dollars to NSW, SA, VIC and TAS or there is going to be trouble when unemployment starts rising - thanks to businesses closing because of the strong Australian dollar - caused by the mining boom. You can already hear this sentiment on talk radio.
The other example of course is the Murray Darling Basin. South Australians jokingly talked about marching upstream and blowing up the dams. At least it was only talk, but if they get a **** sandwich in the next drought it might become more serious.
If China comes off the boil the mining boom will tank very quickly. Same when interest rates start to rise (happening already). There will then be a great deal of people who see themselves as victims of international forces that the Australian Government refused to even try to control. The first outcome of that will be protectionism. The second outcome will be a drastically lower Australian dollar - but the employment opportunities that can produce will be long in coming.
And Qantas? It will have neatly closed all its Australian maintenance and overhaul facilities and squandered its cash on foreign ventures just in time to take the full force of the downturn right in its face.