Excellent points Whenurhappy
If the Argentine government can use a routine force rotation as evidence of "militarisation" imagine what would happen if HMG sent something extra down.
There is no realistic military threat to the islands from Argentina, and they would not receive military help from other South American nations, except perhaps Venezuela. Uncle Hugo would face severe problems getting his boys down south, and the usefulness of his forces in the South Atlantic is questionable. The present garrison is more than sufficient to repel any likely threat, so why inflame the situation?
The ban on FI flagged ships is largely symbolic, reports of egg shortages on the BBC not withstanding. Brazil, Uruguay and Chile have all stated that if the ships fly another flag they can put in anywhere. That's not bullying, it's regional politics, like giving a sweet to a recalcitrant child for a little peace and quiet. Even Paraguay won't allow FI flagged ships to dock there.......
Timmerman's UN presentation was widely ridiculed here, most analysts saw the rotation for what it was, a routine force rotation not an escalation. The Argentine government lacks real support both at home and regionally for anything beyond a diplomatic solution, and any military adventure would result in the isolation of the country from it's principal trading partners. Inflation and unemployment are growing in Argentina, but the people are better informed now and the Falkland Islands are way down their list of priorities. Kirschner's government can't even convince it's own people that the islands are important enough to die for.
Argentina spends about 0.9% GNP on defence, ahead only of that military powerhouse Surinam in South America. The Type-45 could splash every serviceable combat aircraft with one salvo, they have no serious amphibious capability, no way of landing armour, insufficient lift for a decisive airdrop, nothing that could achieve even local air superiority, and very little in the way of reconnaissance assets. Their armed forces know their limitations, and have told the government that they cannot mount an operation against the Falklands. Building up to the level where they could mount such an operation would take several years and require funding that simply isn't available.
All HMG has to do is not rise to the bait, continue to point out the absurdity of the Argentine claims, and follow the self-determination line, something that is widely accepted in Latin America.
TTFN