I know this will upset Silverstrata somewhat, but on the BBC Midlands news this evening Transport minister Justine Greening, visiting BHX today commented that with the runway extension and more long-haul destinations served, passengers from Heathrow might want to hop on HS2 and be at BHX quicker that using the Piccadilly line to London. Or at least words to that effect.
Then she really is more clueless than her previous utterances have metioned - and all because she's bought a few clumps of grass near Heathrow to show her solidarity with the local antis.
Let's face it - I still don't agree with Boris Island, but it is a London answer to a London problem. BHX management need to stop pursuing long haul fantasies and serve the local market - but that is for the BHX thread!
As FDF points out - even if someone were ill-informed enough to compare travel times to Heathrow on the Picadilly line with HS2 to Birmingam (err, hello Justine, have you not heard of the Heathrow 'Express'?) - they could still have to fork out £100 rtn for a peak train fare to match an early morning or mid afternoon departure.
The other problem is that
afaik, LHR, LGW & STN expresses + trains from NCL down to MAN run 24/7 - ok, big gaps in service in the dead of night, but you can still make a 6am flight. The first HS2 won't leave Euston until around 5, arriving M42 station 5:38, then imagine the panic waiting for the people mover to turn up, and rushing through security to arrive at the gate at 5:59. Sorry - gate well and truly closed!
Also, there's the small question of frequency. If there's problems with the tube, usual consequence is wait a few more minutes for the next one, suffer like sardines, but still get there. Allowing 30 mins leeway should cover it, but an hour is best. Now here's the part they don't mention - if HS2 is built to phase 2, and if it runs according to projections (two big ifs) - there's going to be huge pressure between M42 and Old Oak Common. How do you shove so many trains through a busy line? Answer - don't have any stations. They've done that - but M42 station will have a through line, so only some will stop there. An ICE train needs 30k to reach 300kmh, on HS2 they want 400kmh. So to cater for the rail equivalent of the wake turbulence this will create, departures from M42 will be spaced within 2-3 minutes of each other. So you'll get the train from Curzon St whizzing through (why would it stop?) - then they'll stop one from York, Leeds, Manchester and Glasgow respectively. Yeah - four trains per hour is the sell, but the reality is dash for the 10:00, if you miss it, you've got 10:02, 10:05 and 10:08 - then 52 minutes to the next one.
As a faster link from Brum to London, northern England and Scotland, hs2 can be useful - but as an airport shuttle, forget it.