I am not a forecaster but it is likely to be iffy.
The
MSLP suggests a warm front, which tends to be low coud and drizzle, and in these low temps not a lot of convective activity, so the job comes down to the cloudbase and icing conditions / surface temp providing (or not) an escape route from airframe icing.
NOAA for EGNM
for the coming 192hrs suggests temp and DP right on top of each other, cloudbase on the deck, and just for added men v. sheep sorting the 0C level is around ground level also
And I nearly forgot a bit of precipitation too.
I wouldn't do it unless seriously de-iced, because at practical VFR/IFR levels (a few thousand feet) you will be in freezing temps and also definitely in IMC, and it is a fairly long leg to be doing that enroute.
The south east coast looks OK however.
Anyway that's how it looks right now.
I am IMCR current but I’m not one to plan a deliberate IFR flight expecting to finish with an ILS approach.
Why on earth not? If you are current to fly an ILS and you have the kit in the plane, then you should fly an ILS. Phone up the airport beforehand to tell them and off you go. You worked for that bit of paper so use it
I’d prefer some en-route IFR if necessary with a hopeful VFR arrival!
It's more likely to be the other way round
If you need help with using that NOAA site then I can help. It is just one of countless windows into the GFS model, but it's quite a good one.
Can anyone predict a TAF for me?
How about OVC005 to OVC007 with -RA or -SN. At the SE end, looks like SCT020.