Terry, I thought it was a few more than that, but I believe you're in the right ballpark!
I don't think that anyone could accurately predict the time to command for a new entrant just now, because things have changed so much since 9/11. The airline hasn't yet had time to really settle down and determine just what expansion profile it wants to follow - and the worldwide economic uncertainty doesn't help in that process. Someone calculated that we needed 37 new aircraft to promote all the FOs we have now. We currently run about 30 aircraft total!
Retirements, early and scheduled, those who move on to other firms (probably a fair number, but fewer than rumour would suggest), sickness and expansion (constrained by the economy) will all have an effect on command prospects. My best guess is that command is about 8 years away for a new entrant now. That's a lot worse than it was, but a lot better than many other companies - and, remember, this is for B744, A340 and A380 commands, which will be significant for many readers of this thread.
Hopefully, the pay will soon reflect the responsibility of commanding the world's largest, longest-range aircraft.