But it does depend on the aspect of the shot. Even something crap like the SA7A, which is widely available, is unlikely to miss from a 6 o'clock shot. If fired from fwd of 9 o'clock it has a very low chance.... similarly Stinger1 and we all know the USA provided hundreds of those to the Taliban years ago.
A more sophisticated shoulder launched missle, Stinger2 or SA18...well, even the best flare programs have trouble stopping the kill.
The Washington Times (26Nov02) is reporting Al Queda arrests in Saudi for the recent SA7 attempted shoot down of an American Jet. In the same edition is an article detailing US Govt rumours of SA7 and Stinger SAMs being smuggled into the US.
www.washtimes.com/world/20020619-71518182.htm
www.washtimes.com/national/20020531-888741.htm
Interestingly these links, which worked yesterday, is no-longer avail. Maybe someone else will have more luck.
"Its a riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma"