Sorry, maybe I'm not being too bright, but I don't see how the numbers work out in terms of this "North Sea Oil Bonanza"....
rab-k quotes that there is still 30 years of north sea oil left, worth $1 trillion at 2007 prices.
Is that $1 trillion at open market prices? So how much would any government, whether that be Scottish or UK, see of that - in terms of taxation?
Assuming for a moment 100%. Then $1 trillion = £630 billion at todays exchange rate. £630 over 30 years is approx £21 billion a year. Scotlands current GDP is £131 billion. So, if all the oil revenue went to Scotland it would provide 16% of GDP.
But if an independent Scottish government only saw 40% of oil revenues in taxation, which is still a very generous figure, then it would be getting approx. £8 billion a year, which is 6% of GDP. Hardly a game changing scenario surely?
As to the comment that North Sea oil has contributed £300 billion to the UK economy over the years. Well I won't dispute the figure, but over how many years? If it is say 20 (and it's probably more), then that's £15 billion a year, when the government is spending about £700 billion a year today, and even 20 years ago was spending about £250 billion, say an average of £400 billion.
So, £15 Bn from oil vs £400 Bn expenditure, i.e. oil has contributed about 4% to government expenditure???
Once again, while nice to have, I don't see how the North Sea oil revenues have had a bonanza effect for the UK. I would suggest that there has been as much, if not more, benefit to the UK in terms of oil companies investing in infrastructure, employing local workers, etc.
It should be noted that in 2011 28% of Norway's state revenues were generated from the petroleum industry - by contrast that is a "game changing" number!
While I can understand that people talking about £30Bn here or £100Bn there can seem like very impressive numbers, they need to be seen in context. Over what periods of time, and in contrast to what budgets, are these figures being used.
Last edited by Biggus; 2nd Feb 2012 at 12:32.