Based on the pilot’s statement to the Savannah-based pilot regarding bad thunderstorms in the area, he was aware of the weather and still chose to fly into it.
Why? From way over here we hear the utter desperate exasperation of your question.
Maybe the pilot had “got away with” incursions of lesser extent in the past and figured he could tough it out this time. WX forecast mechanisms or visibility minima didn’t get a look in and might not have made an iota of difference had they been tougher or less demanding.
Anyone that has been in the tropics for more than five minutes will possibly have been caught in a severe thunderstorm cell deluge and understand the terror of it, in daylight. To pull the same on at night without at least a storm scope and full IFR ability is sheer lunacy.
Just yesterday I was out at last light, well technically, but with heaps of cloud it’s easy to imagine the visual range and I was seeing heavy storms cells all round with strong lightning and was reminded once again of how fickle we really are in the scheme of things. I was reminded of such an uncomfortable event from about ’86.
I was inbound to Darwin in close company with the late Tevi Borthwick who was in another ’47 with not even a slip indicator back then. He couldn’t hear his VHF, I couldn’t transmit on mine, yeah we’d been out bush a while, but we could talk to each other on HF. We had been cleared from about twenty miles out and then bamm down it came. As we neared the tower to fly by it by about sixty metres its big bright flashing light disappeared at about 100 metres.
Certainly no risk of running into other traffic, but the runway and the entire tarmac area disappeared in a grey sheen and merged with the rain; the green grass straight down was our only reference. That just demonstrates the power of it all and that was at four pm, still three hours of daylight left.
Big cells are often of 15 to 20 nautical miles diameter, visibility down to fifty or sixty metres on the ground, that’s less than 200 feet if there are HT power pylons around.
There must be an answer to your question i thought as I tossed and turned last night. I have no idea how many EMS pilots there are in the US but worldwide in comparison to the number of off shore pilots there may be some similarity in numbers?
So I thought, well all of the off shore guys and their pax have to do HUET courses, which does involve a big bit of capital expenditure at centralised areas, why not have it mandatory for all NVMC, even all EMS pilots to do a mandatory sim ride involving total loss of visibility and then final disorientation.
I figured it’s all too easy on a check ride under the hood, (like this dude) recovering from unusual attitudes day or night or inadvertent IMC penetration, with a safety pilot beside you. That’s no big deal is it 'cos you know he ain't gonna let it crash so how stupid is it as preparation against this type of crash?
In that situation they don’t get the real logic which is aimed at teaching one to recover a sticky situation and thus they get a false sense of confidence, of winning.
That logic is absolutely counterproductive to learning the NOGO line in the sand.
They must be really frightened by an unwinnable situation and thus learn the deep lesson of avoidance. Therefore they must be pushed beyond their ability to a crash conclusion with a tough ride in a simulator.
That will show them that with limited panel and deluge conditions – as forecast on this trip- that it is NOGO, no ifs or bloody butts.
It would also be a good venue to show the flight controllers of followers, as spectators in the sim while the check ride is going on, just how tough it is so they get a real appreciation of the terrors and risks of the – marginal – forecast - in – the – blackness.
It would represent a fair cap-ex for sure in a cash strapped economy, but perhaps cheap compared to the cost of broken machinery already accumulated and the precious lost souls.
My 2 cents worth.
Sasless, all that a certain 'Spartan General' had in his Favour in the Western Desert was, “A line in the sand” which he drew with his baton in front of his assembled staff. He of course won that little tiff to become ‘Montgomery of Alamein.’ It can be done.
Now i hope this big satellite blocking rain storm blows over so we can see if Rafael wins his little match as that will make Mrs. TET very happy.
Cheers.
tet