SSN x 1 is, IMVHO, being a tad optimistic. One had better hope that Argentia doesnt receive any assistance, either practical or otherwise from other nations in finding out where said SSN x1 is... otherwise SSN1 could end up having to run all over the South Atlantic trying to stay hidden. And, given Astute's recent few days on a sandbank, I'm inclined to venture she's not ready yet. Likewise, sticking a solitary T45 anywhere near the area on its own is chancing it a bit, particularly with its SAM systems not exactly being, er proven... Plus, SSN x1 can only do so much, particularly if the plan detailed in the Sunday Times is the one that is used, or something like it, like the Woodward plan (ie, keep the Typhoon's occupied on the fringe of the FICZ for long enough for the commando party to start knocking over the airfield).
As said before, the best idea is not to lose them in the first place and to reinforce sooner rather than later. All well and good that the forces are more "embedded" than they were in 82, but that is besides the point. Not enough infantry, not dispersed enough, not enough of a naval presence, not enough aircraft, no carrier, no Apaches, not an effective enough airbridge, a SHORAD system way past its best...
Im afraid I share the same opinions as Julian Thompson and Sandy Woodward. Lose MPA and you've lost the Islands. And, with our levels of capability being what they are now and going forward, that would be that. Any attempt at re-taking the Islands would be a futile waste of life. Best hope would be for the FIDF to make a thorough nuisance of themselves running a guerilla campaign, but that would only realistically last so long.
I've been saying it for a while, but it really wouldnt surprise me if it went off in the next couple of years, sad to say. More heat than light at the moment, but it doesnt mean its always going to be that way...