I have heard the rumour of QF leaving oneworld for Star on buying into NZ, but I personally think that the conventional "wisdom" is far more likely.
A number of reasons:-[list=1][*]The anticipated relationship with NZ will not be very deep. 25% of NZ will not get QF management control, and QF's previous experience with NZ (and with BA's part-ownership of QF) will probably have taught it that there will be limits even on the management influence it can expect to wield.[*]QF's oneworld relationships, in contrast, are extremely deep and strong. The BA/QF cooperation on the Kangaroo route is probably one of the most successful alliances ever, even if it is relatively limited in scope. But that ties QF into BA and oneworld in a very fundamental way. QF's relationship with AA is also deepening by the month. It also seems to be successful. There are major plans afoot, eg QF's gradual move into AA's T4 at LAX. QF would be tearing all or most of this up if it left for Star.[*]QF/NZ will have the lion's share of the money-making traffic within the Australia/New Zealand markets whichever alliance they belong to. Any venture by SQ in competition would be highly risky, given that QF and Virgin Blue have substantially segmented the market between them. Where would an SQ-backed carrier fit in, when it would get attacked from both ends of the market at once? Any such venture by SQ might be best advised to act substantially as a feeder for the major Star players who have destinations in Aus/NZ, but not be too much more ambitious than that. If so, there's no pressing need for QF to kill that competition before it's born.[/list=1] Of course, all this is idle speculation by a customer whose interest is merely seeing where it all might end up. We shall see.