GusHoneyBun
The seniority list actually proves nothing. The chap in question (I know who he is) may well have only bid for the jet in a Northern base recently, it doesn't mean he's been waiting for 4 years.
I know of one person who obtained the jet with significantly less service than 2 years (he's probably the only one though), and this was 2½ years ago. Right bid, right time and all that. However, as I said above it is very, very unlikely you'll get it within a year or so, but not an absolute impossibility.
As for movement to Q400, yes it's done in base as we all know, but once it's actually in base it's open to everyone. So the time to jet will indeed shrink as more and more come online. The bottom line is, if you want it, bid for it, you may get it, you may not.