Going back to abgd's original post, there is another way of judging the significance of Fig 1.2 in Paul Craig's "The Killing Zone", and I have always meant to do it, but never got round to it till now.
In simple terms:
Dropout Rate + Accident Stats -> Conclusion
Sadly we don't know the drop-out rates, but why don't we try it backwards?
Assumptions + Accident Stats -> Dropout Rate
With suitable assumptions we can start with the accident numbers and work out the drop-out rates they imply. Then we can judge how reasonable the drop-out rates are.
I had a stab at this, and there certainly seems to be a "safety zone" during pilot training, and then there might well be some kind of a "risky zone" for the next 250 hours or so.
Here is a link to what I found (you have to scroll past the flying pig):
TwoDodecaCarrot
PS For anybody who liked the Monty Hall problem, try googling: "boy born on Tuesday"