Not sure of your point as the battle group would never put themselves deliberately into a position where they are an easy target. But my thoughts are there are LOTS of scenarios where the kilo would come out on top but every scenario I might put forward would see the very astute Americans put forward another half dozen or so to take away the threat. All realistic scenarios but no one is going to use a Nimitz class carrier as 'bait'
glojo, for a torpedo firing solution, compare operational speed of carrier and Kilo boat. Kilo cannot catch carrier, therefore the Kilo can only lurk and hope that the carrier presents a firing solution. Effective lurking for one Kilo can only realistically occur in the Strait (best chance of encountering the carrier) but this is where the shallow water places the Kilo at risk. A dozen Kilo boats lurking in the Gulf of Oman could be a serious threat, one Kilo lurking in the Strait will probably be sunk before the carrier appears over the horizon.