BOING,
The more I watch this situation unfold the more obvious it becomes that no one has the slightest idea what they are doing. The majors were all expanding because everyone else was and they did not want to be left behind. Sounds like the arms race doesn't it! Then boom. The economy goes down the crapper and on top of that 9/11. This provides the majors with detente and a reason/excuse to cut back capacity to where they should have stayed at 4 or 5 years ago. That and they can do it without ALPA causing a stink.
Mind you this is all with 20/20 hind sight. However, hasn't this all been played out before?