Originally Posted by
Courtney Mil
. . . is nothing new,
. . . lead time for recruiting pilts . . . far longer than the rate at which the size and shape of the front line has been changing.
. . . the demand had always dropped off and, so, there was a backlog that just kept getting bigger.
Which is the nub. It was made worse, IMHO, when aircrew ground tours were done away with. The ground tours meant some aircrew could be 'rested' (or sidelined) or absorbed when their aircraft type left the Service. It could be used to provide first tour slots.
. . .salmi slicing is . . .the worst way of doing things. . . never catch up. Far better to wait, consider exactly what is required and (if necessary) have one huge cut far enough in the future than loads of instant little ones.
I think you countered your own argument. If planners can't catch up then there will always be too many in the pipeline. Waiting until things stabilise is not an option as you said things at the front change too rapidly. In an ideal world yes, but it has been a given since WW2 that we are continually shrinking.
You will remember the big aircrew retention measure in 1969 - Spec aircrew - followed in '73 by massive cuts with the Canberra force and much of the AT force balanced by the need for lots of fast-jet aircrew.
Salami slicing at the start of the pipe and aircrew ground tours at the other might be a way to go. Look at the plot. Anticipate you need 10x pilots per year to provide 9x at the front line 4-5 years hence. Recruit 9x. It is unlikely that you will need 9x or even 10x down the line.