C17 v A400M

[ORAC]

AW & ST:

Prague May Spring
Airlift Surprise
ANDY NATIVI/GENOA and DOUGLAS BARRIE/LONDON

Key European capability shortfalls will be featured high on the agenda at this week's NATO summit, with efforts to address military airlift and alliance ground surveillance needs.

This week could see the emergence of a road map directing the creation of an airlift-equivalent of NATO's E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System squadron........

Under what is in effect a master plan for DCI plus, perhaps a misnomer with DCI minus more accurate, NATO nations will sign off to specific commitments at the Prague meeting, including military airlift.

GERMANY IS TO LEAD the NATO effort to plug its glaring shortfall in airlift capacity, irrespective of Berlin having so far hamstrung efforts to launch Europe's A400M military airlifter program.

This initiative could see NATO either lease or purchase a squadron of heavy-lift aircraft, with the Boeing C-17 and the Ukrainian Antonov An-124 in the frame. While the latter candidate may prove politically attractive to Berlin, the C-17 option will provide interoperability with the U.S. Air Force.

One possible model for NATO would be to follow the lease route adopted by Britain. The British have four C-17 aircraft on lease from Boeing, ostensibly as a stopgap until the A400M is delivered....

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A400M Still In Limbo
MUNICH

As a result of Germany's reluctance to commit to earlier plans to procure 73 Airbus A400M airlifters, program go-ahead is now expected to be delayed until 2003. Service entry date would further slip to 2009.

German Defense Minister Peter Struck is scheduled to submit an updated procurement plan by the end of the month. If Germany reduces its A400M order, he said, the aircraft price would remain unchanged--a key concern for other participating countries.

According to French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie, an unchanged A400M price is still possible, as Italy and Portugal are reevaluating their proposed orders. Italy, which was no longer expected to buy A400Ms, is reportedly considering a 10-aircraft commitment, while Portugal is interested in ordering three. If such purchases materialize, Germany could reduce its A400M commitment to 60 without endangering the program.

The initial production run, based on the participating air forces' orders, would remain a combined 196 aircraft.....

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So, if I read this right:

1. Germany is going to lead the effort to establish a European airlift capability based around the C-17 or AN-124; even though they can't afford the A-400Ms they've signed up for.

2. Germany wants to reduce it's A-400M buy - but needs the unit price not to increase, otherwise there are no savings. The only way that is going to happen is if they can persuade the Portuguese to reinstate their order and the Italians to increase theirs.

Meanwhile, the Italians have budget problems which look like they might not even be able to meet the Eurofighter funding commitments and have signed an order for C-27s as well as C-130Js.

And as for Portugal, the same issue of AW & ST states:

"In Europe, C-27J managers expect the program to benefit from the turmoil in the European A400M airlifter program. Portugal and Ireland are becoming strong candidates for the aircraft, according to Romagnoli. Portugal is in the market for 12-16 aircraft, and also has expressed interest in C-130Js".

So, being squeezed out by the C-17/AN-124 at the top end and by the C-27/C-130J at the bottom end. Anyone want to put odds on the A-400M ever getting the go ahead?