the problem is, with the drawdown of forces in Iraq,and the problems Pakistan has been giving the coalition forces over passage in the last few weeks, its all too believable.
I really do believe that something like this is feasible. Its just a matter of whether they are mad enough.
And as someone said earlier, with the USA tied up with two major shooting wars, you could throw in a forced "reconciliation" between China and Taiwan, coupled with a Chinese move into the Spratleys
and now ... really pushing things to the logical extreme...if Egypt were to fall to an Iranian fundamentalist government....