My analysis on a sound report from the DEBKAfile – posted on the thread:
Kim Jong-Il Dead - S. Korea on DefCon 3
1. Elements of the North Korean army or its security services could go head to head for a power grab in Pyongyang, potentially sparking civil strife in this enigmatic nation of 24 million.
They could very well do this and Kim Jong Um knows it. That is exactly we he needs to grab power immediately and then get his generals and his people busy on a distraction.
2. To keep any such violence from spilling across its borders, China may send troops into North Korea bringing similar action from Seoul, possibly with US backing. China has a large North Korean expatriate minority which respects Pyongyang rather than Beijing and is therefore a source of unrest.China knows the few nukes NK has aren’t coming their way. Also they would look much better in the public eye if they didn’t get involved… …yet. Much better to wait until it’s all over and then wade in with a “solution” and grab NK for itself – to protect its population, clearly.
Of the US troops stationed for 58 years on the armistice lines between South and North, about 28,500 remain and could be involved in a conflict with the potential of exploding into another Korean War. The first war in the 1950s cost several armies more than a million lives.
Never. Obama it trying hard to extricate himself from all these issues so that the US voters see him as a peace-maker and as the guy that brought the troops home.
3. The big difference between then and now is that today North Korea has nuclear arms and there is no knowing at what point someone in Pyongyang may decide to use them.
I’ve told you that already.
4. A recent Pentagon situation paper estimates that if the Korean Peninsula descended into domestic anarchy and civil strife, the United States would be called on to raise an army of intervention numbering 400,000 soldiers, 100,000 more than the size of US forces fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan at the peak of those conflicts.
Their deficit is bigger than anyone’s. Mr Kim Jr knows that.
5. North Korea maintains thriving nuclear, military and technological relations with Iran and Syria. Hundreds of technicians and engineers, including nuclear and missile experts, have worked for years on their nuclear and missile programs.
And they will continue to do so. Syria needs all the friends it can get.
My estimate is sound.